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Updated: May 25, 2025
Results are better chemists than we, and their delicate root-fibres test the ground more accurately; we shall find them languishing for some favorite elements, or colored and persuaded by novel ones. History must remember the constants of Man and of Nature, but be always expecting their variables, lest her prophetic gift fall into ill-repute.
I shall never forget the impatience with which I have often watched the approach of darkness after a long day's run to the south, knowing that, in a few moments, I was to discover celestial phenomena heretofore concealed from my view. After slanting through the north-east Trade-wind, we reached that well-known but troublesome stage in the voyage, so difficult to get over, called the Variables.
This, then, by no means implies that the two variables above-named matter and consciousness stand in the relation of cause and effect, antecedent and consequence, to one another. For on this subject we know nothing.
They all gave us practically the same answer: that in many cases it was possible to, solve mathematical problems which contained four variables, and in some cases problems with five or six variables, but that it was manifestly impossible to solve a problem containing twelve variables in any other way than by the slow process of "trial and error."
The word "determine," here, has a purely logical significance: a certain number of variables "determine" another variable if that other variable is a function of them.
A slight sweep eastward brings us to yet another meeting place of stars, the cluster M 25, situated between the variables U and V. This is brilliant and easily resolved into its components, which include a number of double stars. The two neighboring variables just referred to are interesting.
There are a few telescopic points which are intensely red, some exhibit beautiful golden tints, while others are blue or green. There are some curious stars which regularly change their brilliancy. Let me try to illustrate the nature of these variables.
These either lack predictive powers or lapse into logical fallacies, such as the "omitted variable bias" or "reverse causality". The former is concerned with important variables unaccounted for the latter with reciprocal causation, when every cause is also caused by its own effect. These are symptoms of an all-pervasive malaise.
U has a period of about six days and three quarters, and its range of magnitude runs from the seventh down to below the eighth. V is a somewhat mysterious star. Chandler removed it from his catalogue of variables because no change had been observed in its light by either himself, Sawyer, or Yendell. Quirling, the discoverer of its variability, gave the range as between magnitudes 7.6 and 8.8.
The economist Rudiger Dornbusch, who died last month, studied in his seminal paper, "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics", published in 1975, the apparently irrational ebb and flow of floating currencies. His conclusion was that markets overshoot in response to surprising changes in economic variables.
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